General Election Odds 2024. 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing democrat kamala harris’s and republican donald trump’s chances of winning. Kamala harris moved into a narrow lead in our final update, with her chance of winning rising from 50% to 56%.
Vice president kamala harris and former president donald trump each need at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Both trump and harris have states they can probably count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win.
